Showers possible Thursday afternoon and night. Mild this weekend – Cold air coming late next week

Wednesday, November 29, 2017 –

Good Evening.  We had another mild day this afternoon.

We will stay mild through the weekend.

A cold front will increase our rain chances Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

The image above is a little misleading.  Our best rain chance will be Thursday night as the cold front moves through the area.  The rain chance is 50% Thursday night.

Watch how quickly the clouds roll into the area are tomorrow.

8 PM Tonight – Skies will be clear with cold temperatures.

8 AM Thursday – We start the morning with some sunshine.  Temperatures will be cold.

Noon Thursday – Skies become mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers during the afternoon.

5 PM Thursday – Rain chances increase through the evening as the cold front starts to move in from the west.

8 PM Thursday – The cold front moves across the area with scattered showers.

Midnight Thursday – The front moves east.  We keep clouds into early Friday morning.

8 AM Friday – High pressure builds back into the region which will clear our skies.

Noon Friday – Sunny skies are forecast for the region.

5 Pm Friday – We maintain clear skies with a high near 56 degrees.  Notice the clouds in Oklahoma,  That will be our next weather maker for Saturday.

Midnight Friday – Clouds move into Arkansas with that next weather maker.

8 AM Saturday – we will find clouds across the region as that weak system moves in from the west.

Noon Saturday – We keep mostly cloudy skies in the area.

8 Pm Saturday – Skies clear.  Sunny skies are forecast for Sunday.

The jet stream has played an important role in keeping our part of the country mild, but forecast models bring some much colder air into the east and parts of the southeast late next week into the weekend.

Current jet stream

That jet stream is expected to make a change next week into the 2nd week of December.

You can see the cold air trapped in parts of Alaska and the Northwest Territory.

500 MB Chart – Current upper air weather pattern.  Purple is the coldest air, dark blue is cold air.

I want to step ahead and look at next week.  High pressure will build into the west which will displace the cold air and allow for the jet stream – a river of air aloft – to make a dip in the east which will bring cold air back to the region late next week into the weekend.

This is Tuesday of next week.  Low pressure across eastern Canada has winds spinning counter-clockwise which will bring cold air into the Great Lakes. A huge area of high pressure in the west will also allow from more of a northwest wind across the northern plains and the Great Lakes which ill also bring cold air into the northern plains and the Great Lakes.

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Now look at the upper air pattern for Thursday.  Again this is a 500 MB chart which represents what is happening at about 18,000 feet in the atmosphere.  Notice the big dip of cold air in the east.  This is just the beginning of the pattern change which will bring cold air to the east and allow for warm air in parts of the west.

Here is a look at next Saturday, December 9th.  If this forecast holds true, we will see very cold air across the northeast, the Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley.  There will be a possibility for snow across the northeast and the Great Lakes.  We too could see some snow showers or snow flurries if this pattern holds true.  Stay tuned.

Here is a better look at that cold air and how it moves to the southeast.  Current weather as of this afternoon.

This is a look at next Saturday, December 9th.  Notice how much of the east could be in the cold air.

Here is a look at the Storm Team 7-Day Forecast.

Have a great night!

Mark Reynolds

Chief Meteorologist

News Channel 11

Office:  423-434-4540

Email:  mreynolds@wjhl.com

http://twitter.com/markreynoldswx

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Mark-Reynolds/68056229667

 

 

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