Tropical Storm Franklin is a little over 300 miles east of the Yucatan Peninsula coastline and moving westward at around 13 mph. Franklin is expected to progressively strengthen throughout the day
today before it makes landfall in Quintana Roo Mexico. After this, the storm will emerge in the Bay of Campeche where it could potentially reach hurricane strength.
See also: Hurricane Tracker
Tropical Storm Franklin continues to strengthen this morning with deep convection continuing to wrap around the low-level center. This is a clear sign that the storm is continuing to mature.
The water over which the circulation center is over is very warm and wind shear has weakened significantly over the past 12 hours. This will continue to promote further strengthening of Franklin before it makes landfall, just north of Belize sometime tonight.
Flooding rain and damaging winds can be expected with Franklin as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall of 4-8 inches can be expected, especially just north of the forecast track, along with winds gusting at 60-70 mph. Life-threatening floods will lead to mudslides and significant property damage.
The wind will cause power outages and downed trees. The most widespread damage is expected to be close to the coast of southern Quintana Roo.
Franklin will continue to produce flooding rain and scattered wind damage across the remainder of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Franklin reemerges in the Bay of Campeche, it will likely intensify once again, potentially approaching hurricane strength. This is due to anomalously warm water and very low wind shear across the region.
Franklin will make its second landfall close to Laguna Tamiahua Mexico. Similar flooding, mudslides and wind damage can all be expected with the second landfall of Franklin.
Elsewhere, we are monitoring a tropical wave across the central tropical Atlantic, several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This wave has acquired enhanced convection over the last few hours and appears to be overcoming the dry air it has contended with over the past day or two.
There is some potential for this tropical wave to develop, but any development would be rather slow.
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